Is Thailand ready for an uncertain world?
Thailand Security Dialogue 2026* asked and received answers to the most pertinent agenda of our time – how to navigate geopolitics, and prepare for the global disorder?
They came in separate keynote addresses by Thai Defence Minister Lt. Gen. Adul Boonthumjaroen and Dr. Benedikt Franke, Vice Chairman and CEO of Munich Security Conference (MSC) as if both could read each other’s mind.
Here’s ISP’s take from the forum**:
Gen. Adul: The disorder is frightening even for security agencies. It’s not about 2 sides in a conflict. Modern warfare isn’t just about “who has the larger force,” but “who adapts faster, has stronger systems, and maintains public trust.”
National defence is no longer the sole duty of the military, but a mission for the entire nation.
Dr. Franke: History tells us over the centuries that one order replaces another. We have to move from comfort to the policy of resilience and “no regret” strategy – which are always right – no matter if Trump, Xi, or Putin come and go or even our own political leadership.
Gen. Adul: The most concerning threats are not the ones we see, but those still hidden, and no one knows when they will happend.
Therefore, the key question is not, “How do we respond to a crisis after it happens?”
But rather, “How do we detect threats before they become a crisis?” This is the core of modern national defence.
Dr. Franke: Get your house in order! Germany is now beginning to think differently on legacy industries; on dependency: China on market, Russia on energy and US on technology and military. For the first time, we now have a national security council and strategy not to deal with countries but minerals, energy, etc and come up with a long-term plan
(cited as an example: 3,800 port cranes which the American found to have been built by China and relied on Chinese software. The US decided to replace them all)
Gen. Adul: The next fight will change enormously. We have to ask in an emergency – who will make decisions and provide information (and backup communication). And what if the infrastructure is damaged?
Victory used to mean superior firepower. In today’s world, five key words matter most,
People – Data – Technology – Cooperation – Trust.
The best weapon is useless without skilled operators. The best technology fails without accurate data. And the strongest military collapses without the trust of its people.
Victory, therefore, comes not from force alone, but from a nation’s ability to unite and make the right decisions in the right time.
Dr. Franke: Take your population along! If not, you will open a pandora (far right, far left, and abuses). The country which does this well is Sweden whose governments get high approval for security policies including military recruitment.
Gen. Adul: Sustainable security must be built before a crisis strikes. We need a framework based on Protect – Prepare – Respond – Recover. We cannot wait for a crisis to happen before fixing it.
Concrete actions we must take include:
- Establish a forward-looking national threat assessment system.
- Connect data across defence, economic, energy, health, and private sectors.
- Build contingency plans for critical infrastructure.
- Conduct regular joint crisis response exercises.
- Foster security awareness among the public
When a crisis hits, there is no time to build a new system. Systems must be built and tested in times of peace.
Crucially, we must shift our mindset from “buying weapons” to “building national capability.”
For every procurement, we must ask, “What does Thailand gain in return?” Just equipment or knowledge, talent, technology, research, and local industry?”
By doing this, we don’t just buy security—we build it ourselves.
Dr. Franke: Invest in partnership – resilience means more eggs in a basket. Not to depend on a few allies but more of everything – friends and allies. There have to be compromises.
Gen. Adul: In an uncertain era, Thailand must not choose sides. Instead, we must engage with all sides while keeping Thailand’s interests at the center.
Thailand should built relationship with all sides based on mutual benefit, respect, and strategic autonomy.
We may have multiple partnerships, diverse collaborations, and different interests. Crucially, alignment with one nation must never limit our ties with another.
This is the essence of Strategic Balance. Thailand must be capable of engaging and cooperating with everyone, while independently deciding what is best for our nation.
Dr. Franke: Help rebuild global multilateralism. Invest in the future of the UN to deal with today and tomorrow’s challenges. The world will change for the worst if we don’t cooperate.
Germany and Thailand are natural allies.
There are eight theories how the new order will reborn: The most likely is war and massive destruction – this is the sad truth!
Gen. Adul: We must change our main question from, “Is the military ready for war?”
To a much larger question, “Is Thailand ready for an uncertain world?”
Because when a crisis arrives, everything must be ready, the Armed Forces, the government, the private sector, technology, and critical infrastructure.
Most importantly, citizens must trust that our nation will endure.
Thus, 21st-century security is not just about building combat power. It is about building a nation’s capacity to survive, adapt, and stand strong.
If there is one message I want to leave with you today, it is this.
“A secure nation is not one without threats, but one that can stand firm, decide wisely, and move forward when threats arrive.”
This is the challenge of national defence in an era of uncertainty. And this is the security we must build together.
*Thailand Security Dialogue, under the theme “Defence and Security in an Era of Uncertainty”, Aug 16-18, 2026 at Athenee Hotel, was organised by the National Defence Studies Institute, Thailand.
**Content above are ISP’s own interpretation
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