This report calls for a significant recalibration of Thailand’s strategy toward Myanmar, based on the new reality that the post-election situation in Myanmar has not led to stability, peace, or national reconciliation. Instead, it represents a reconfiguration of military power in a new form—one that is likely to prolong and further complicate internal conflict.

The elections held in December 2025, and January 2026 did not meaningfully open political space. Major opposition forces were excluded, many ethnic groups—both armed and unarmed—did not participate, and voting took place amid ongoing conflict. The outcomes were effectively predetermined within a military-designed power structure. What emerged, therefore, is not genuine stability but an illusion of parliamentary governance, lacking legitimacy and incapable of controlling violence on the ground.

While Myanmar’s leadership—particularly the military—has long sought to establish a strong, centralized unitary state, recent crises have transformed the country into a system of fragmented authority. This system consists of the Tatmadaw, ethnic armed organizations, hybrid forces, resistance networks, and deeply interconnected grey economies.

This transformation has direct implications for Thailand. Myanmar has become a systemic risk, affecting Thailand simultaneously across security, humanitarian, and economic dimensions. The traditional state-to-state policy approach is no longer adequate. The report therefore proposes a strategic shift based on two core axes: a three dimensional policy framework and a three-corridor spatial approach.